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Preventable cancers could cost the U.K. more than $1.5 trillion over the next 25 years, a report has shown.

一份报告显示，可预防的癌症可能在未来25年内使英国损失超过1.5万亿美元。

Researchers think roughly 3.7 million new cases of cancers linked to risk factors like smoking and alcohol consumption could be diagnosed in the country between 2023 and 2040 in the U.K.

研究人员认为，英国2023年至2040年间，该国可诊断出约370万新发癌症病例，这些癌症与吸烟和饮酒等风险因素有关。

By 2048, the cost of these cancers to the individual, to families, to the healthcare system, as well as to the economy in the form of lost productivity, may reach as high as $1.58 trillion (£1.26 trillion).

到2048年，这些癌症对个人，家庭，医疗保健系统以及生产力损失形式的经济的成本可能高达1.58万亿美元（1.26万亿英镑）。

Some 40 percent of cancer diagnoses are thought to be linked to risk factors like obesity, UV exposure, alcohol and smoking, with lung, bowel, melanoma and breast cancer the most affected.

大约40%的癌症诊断被认为与肥胖，紫外线照射，酒精和吸烟等危险因素有关，其中肺癌，肠癌，黑色素瘤和乳腺癌受影响最大。

Researchers estimated how many more of potentially preventable cancer cases would develop as the country’s population changes.

研究人员估计，随着该国人口的变化，还有多少潜在可预防的癌症病例会发展。

Although cancer rates themselves weren’t expected to significantly rise, growth in population means the sheer number of people being diagnosed should increase.

虽然预计癌症发病率本身不会显着上升，但人口增长意味着被诊断的人数应该增加。

The researchers expect 184,000 people to develop a preventable cancer this year, with associated costs hitting around $97 billion (£78 billion). By 2040, new cases could grow to 226,000.

研究人员预计今年将有184000人患上可预防的癌症，相关费用约为970亿美元（780亿英镑）。到2040年，新病例可能会增加到226000。

Commissioned by The Guardian and performed by Frontier Economics, the research has not been peer-reviewed and is not published in a scientific journal. And the trends in cancer incidence and population it uses to forecast the future may not pan out as predicted.

由监护人委托并由前沿经济学进行，该研究尚未经过同行评审，也未在科学期刊上发表。它用于预测未来的癌症发病率和人口趋势可能不会如预测的那样出现。

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Nonetheless, the results are “a stark reminder” of the need for cancer prevention policies, Cancer Research UK chief executive Michelle Mitchell told The Guardian.

尽管如此，研究结果“强烈提醒”了癌症预防政策的必要性，英国癌症研究首席执行官米歇尔·米切尔（Michelle Mitchell）告诉卫报。

“If recent trends continue, smoking could cause around 1m more cancer cases in the U.K. between now and 2040. And more than 21 million U.K. adults could be obese, which would increase their risk of over 13 types of cancer.” she added.

“如果最近的趋势持续下去，现在到2040年间，英国吸烟可能导致约100万癌症病例。超过2100万英国成年人可能肥胖，这将增加他们罹患13种以上癌症的风险。”她补充说。

Research published in BMJ Oncology last week hinted that cancer may be on the rise among under-50s, with 79% more cases being diagnosed in 2019 than 1990.

上周在BMJ Oncology上发表的研究表明，50岁以下的癌症可能呈上升趋势，2019年诊断的病例比1990年多79%。

But this figure does not reflect the fact the world’s population has grown by more than 40% over this period. In addition, cancer reporting may have improved, as opposed to rates themselves increasing so markedly.

但是这个数字并没有反映出这个时期世界人口增长了40%以上的事实。此外，癌症报告可能有所改善，而不是利率本身显着增加。

The researchers acknowledged these limitations, but still cautioned that risk factors like physical inactivity, excess weight and salty diets may be driving some growth in cancer rates among younger people.

研究人员承认这些局限性，但仍警告说，缺乏身体活动，体重过重和咸食等风险因素可能会推动年轻人癌症发病率的增长。

Professor Stephen Duffy from Queen Mary University of London, who was not involved in the research, said the results were “interesting”, but would need “considerable time and thought” to interpret properly.

来自伦敦玛丽女王大学的Stephen Duffy教授没有参与这项研究，他说结果“有趣”，但需要“相当长的时间和思想”来正确解释。

Some of the results chimed with observations from other research, such as an increase in the proportion of women under 50 being diagnosed with breast cancer in the U.K — an observation that he noted does not seem to be linked to improvements in screening.

一些结果与其他研究的观察结果相吻合，例如英国50岁以下女性被诊断患有乳腺癌的比例增加-他指出的观察结果似乎与筛查的改善无关。

“There are many interesting results here,” he told the Science Media Centre, “but they are complicated, and the cancer prevention and control community will need to take a long look at them.... to consider exactly what they mean and what we can do to reverse some of the increasing trends.”

“这里有很多有趣的结果，”他告诉科学媒体中心，“但它们很复杂，癌症预防控制界需要长时间观察它们….要确切考虑它们的含义以及我们可以做些什么来扭转一些增长趋势。”