AbstractThe goal of this analysis is to describe seasonal disaster patterns in Central Europe in order to raise awareness and improve hospital disaster planning and resilience, particularly during peak events. Hospitals are essential pillars of a country’s critical infrastructure, vital for sustaining healthcare services and supporting public well-being—a key issue of national security.

摘要本分析的目的是描述中欧的季节性灾害模式，以提高认识，改善医院灾难规划和恢复能力，特别是在高峰事件期间。医院是一个国家关键基础设施的重要支柱，对于维持医疗服务和支持公共福祉至关重要，这是国家安全的关键问题。

Disaster planning for hospitals is crucial to ensure their functionality under special circumstances. But the impact of climate change and seasonal variations in the utilization of hospital services are raising challenges. Therefore, the knowledge of perennial disaster patterns could help strengthen the resilience of hospitals.

医院的灾难规划对于确保其在特殊情况下的功能至关重要。但气候变化的影响和医院服务利用的季节性变化正在带来挑战。因此，对常年灾害模式的了解可以帮助加强医院的抗灾能力。

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the Emergency Events Database EM-DAT for disasters in Central Europe (Germany, France, Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland) between January 2000 and December 2023. Time distribution of disasters, patterns and longitudinal trends, were analyzed to discuss impact on disaster preparedness in hospitals.

我们对2000年1月至2023年12月期间中欧（德国、法国、丹麦、荷兰、比利时、卢森堡、瑞士、奥地利、捷克共和国和波兰）灾害应急事件数据库EM-DAT进行了横断面分析。分析了灾害的时间分布，模式和纵向趋势，以讨论对医院备灾的影响。

Out of 474 events, 83% were associated with a natural hazard and only 80 events (17%) were of technological cause. While technological disasters were spread equally over the whole year, the vast majority of disasters related to natural hazards (n = 394), i.e. storms (n = 178, 45%), floods (n = 101, 26%), and extreme temperatures (n = 93, 24%) peaked during summer and winter months.

在474起事件中，83%与自然灾害有关，只有80起事件（17%）是技术原因。虽然技术灾害在全年平均分布，但绝大多数灾害与自然灾害有关（n = 394), i、 e.风暴（n=178，45%），洪水（n=101，26%）和极端温度（n=93，24%）在夏季和冬季达到峰值。

Fewer disasters were registered during autumn and especially spring seasons. More than 50% of the technological disasters were categorized in the transport accident subgroup. Technological disasters were spread equally over the whole year. Looking at the three most common disaster types, ex.

秋季，尤其是春季发生的灾害较少。超过50%的技术灾害被归类为运输事故亚组。技术灾难在全年平均分布。看看三种最常见的灾难类型，例如。

IntroductionHospitals are one of the main institutions of the health care system. As a part of the so-called critical infrastructure of a country, they are essential for the maintenance of public services, vital for sustaining healthcare services and supporting public well-being1. Hospital emergency planning is crucial to ensure that their functionality can be maintained, even under special circumstances.

。作为一个国家所谓的关键基础设施的一部分，它们对于维持公共服务至关重要，对于维持医疗服务和支持公众福祉至关重要1。医院应急计划对于确保其功能得以维持至关重要，即使在特殊情况下也是如此。

Strengthening the resilience of the critical infrastructure and including hospitals is one of the goals of the Sendai Framework for disaster risk reduction until 20302. In different countries, hospitals are obligated to prepare plans for different potential emergencies such as mass casualty events, fires, or blackouts.

在20302年之前，加强关键基础设施（包括医院）的抗灾能力是《仙台减少灾害风险框架》的目标之一。在不同的国家，医院有义务为不同的潜在紧急情况制定计划，例如大规模伤亡事件，火灾或停电。

There are existing national and international guidelines and reviews that define the most important scenarios to prepare for3,4,5,6,7. Most of the mentioned threats in these publications address isolated local problems (e.g. mass casualty, fire, …) and assume an intact infrastructure as well as the possibility of regional assistance through external authorities.

。这些出版物中提到的大多数威胁都涉及孤立的地方问题（例如大规模伤亡、火灾等），并假设基础设施完整，以及通过外部机构提供区域援助的可能性。

However, a survey of 96 German hospitals showed that only about 25% of the hospitals have plans for floods or extreme weather events8. But in the last years in Europe, there were several events at a larger scale, like the “Ahrtal Flood” in the summer of 2021, different wildfires or heatwaves which compromised more than a single region at the same time and led at least partially to a destroyed or compromised infrastructure.

然而，一项对96家德国医院的调查显示，只有约25%的医院有洪水或极端天气事件的计划8。但在过去的几年中，欧洲发生了几起规模更大的事件，如2021年夏天的“Ahrtal洪水”，不同的野火或热浪同时危害了不止一个地区，并导致至少部分基础设施被毁或受损。

Similar phenomena were also seen after the earthquake in Algeria in 2003 and the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, which led to a significant reduction of hospitals and other healthcare institutions9.In addition to these disaster events partially due to climate change, the utilizat.

2003年阿尔及利亚地震和2004年印度洋海啸后也出现了类似现象，导致医院和其他医疗机构大幅减少9。除了这些部分由于气候变化引起的灾难事件外，公用事业公司（utilizat）。

1.

1.

In order to explore time-distribution of events: across the study period 2000–2023, were there particular months or seasons where disasters had particularly peaked, in the overall average?

为了探索事件的时间分布：在2000-2023年的研究期间，在总体平均水平上，是否有特定的月份或季节灾害达到了峰值？

2.

2.

In order to explore nature and pattern of events: which disasters were these?

为了探索事件的性质和模式：这些是哪些灾难？

3.

3.

In order to explore longitudinal trends: did the number of registered disasters change over time?

？

4.

4.

To raise awareness and to improve preparedness: what could be the impact of these recurring disaster patterns on hospitals and their emergency planning?

提高认识和改进准备：这些反复发生的灾难模式对医院及其应急计划有什么影响？

In summary, with the present cross-sectional study of the EM-DAT database, we aim to analyze and characterize disaster types in central Europe between 2000 to 2023 with a particular focus on perennial disaster patterns and outline the potential impact of these findings for future hospital emergency planning and better preparedness.MethodsA cross-sectional analysis of disaster events in the Emergency Events Database EM-DAT was conducted18.

总之，通过目前对EM-DAT数据库的横断面研究，我们旨在分析和描述2000年至2023年间中欧的灾害类型，特别关注常年灾害模式，并概述这些发现对未来医院应急计划和更好准备的潜在影响。方法对紧急事件数据库EM-DAT中的灾害事件进行横断面分析18。

EM-DAT is a free open-access disaster database, that collects disasters from all over the world19. The study was conducted in 2024. Reported events between January 2000 and December 2023 (close of database 12 December 2023) in selected countries in Central Europe, which was defined as Germany and bordering countries (France, Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland) have been included.

EM-DAT是一个免费的开放存取灾难数据库，收集来自世界各地的灾难19。这项研究于2024年进行。2000年1月至2023年12月（2023年12月12日数据库关闭）在中欧选定国家报告的事件，这些国家被定义为德国和邻国（法国、丹麦、荷兰、比利时、卢森堡、瑞士、奥地利、捷克共和国和波兰）。

A regional approach was chosen due to various aspects. On the one hand, this increased the number of events to be considered, and seasonal effects become clearer. On the other hand, the consideration of individual countries has a greater range of fluctuation, which can be due to geographical conditions such as length of coasts, mass of mountains etc., but population size and area also play a role here.

由于各个方面的原因，选择了一种区域方法。一方面，这增加了要考虑的事件数量，季节性影响变得更加明显。另一方面，考虑到个别国家的波动幅度较大，这可能是由于地理条件，如海岸长度、山脉质量等，但人口规模和面积也在其中起作用。

The selection of countries therefore was based on two particular assumptions: 1) there should be geographical proximity to make climate variables and exposure to the same kind of events comparable, and 2) the socio-economic status and technological development should be similar. Since the recording of disaster events in the EM-DAT register is contingent upon the availability of country reports, examining individual countries could also be subject to a significantly larger reporting bias, leading to dis.

因此，国家的选择基于两个特定的假设：1）应该有地理上的接近性，使气候变量和对同类事件的暴露具有可比性；2）社会经济地位和技术发展应该相似。由于EM-DAT登记册中灾害事件的记录取决于国家报告的可用性，因此检查单个国家也可能会受到更大的报告偏差，从而导致dis。

Data availability

数据可用性

The datasets generated during and analysed during the current study are available in the EM-Dat repository. EM-DAT contains data on the occurrence and impacts of over 26,000 mass disasters worldwide from 1900 to the present day. The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) distributes the data in open access for non-commercial use.

EM Dat存储库中提供了当前研究期间生成和分析的数据集。EM-DAT包含1900年至今全球26000多起大规模灾害的发生和影响的数据。灾害流行病学研究中心（CRED）以非商业用途的开放获取方式分发数据。

https://public.emdat.be/.

https://public.emdat.be/.

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Download referencesFundingOpen Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.Author informationAuthors and AffiliationsHeidelberg University, Medical Faculty Heidelberg, Department of Anesthesiology, Im Neuenheimer Feld 420, 69120, Heidelberg, GermanyMaik von der Forst, Maximilian Dietrich, Felix C.

下载由Projekt DEAL启用和组织的referencesFundingOpen Access资助。作者信息作者和附属机构海德堡大学医学院海德堡麻醉学系，Im Neuenheimer Feld 42069120，海德堡，GermanyMaik von der Forst，Maximilian Dietrich，Felix C。

F. Schmitt & Erik PoppHeidelberg University, Medical Faculty Heidelberg, Center for Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Pediatric Neurology and Metabolic Medicine, Im Neuenheimer Feld 430, 69120, Heidelberg, GermanyMarkus RiesAuthorsMaik von der ForstView author publicationsYou can also search for this author in.

F、 施密特和埃里克·波普·海德堡大学医学院，海德堡儿科和青少年医学中心，儿科神经病学和代谢医学，Im Neuenheimer Feld 43069120，海德堡，GermanyMarkus RiesAuthorsMaik von der ForstView author Publications你也可以在中搜索这位作者。

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PubMed Google ScholarFelix C.F.SchmittView作者出版物您也可以在

PubMed Google ScholarErik PoppView author publicationsYou can also search for this author in

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PubMed Google ScholarMarkus RiesView author publicationsYou can also search for this author in

PubMed Google Scholarmakus RiesView作者出版物您也可以在

PubMed Google ScholarContributionsMaik von der Forst: Conceiving and designing the analysis, performing the analysis, Interpretation of data, Writing – original draft, Visualization; Maximilian Dietrich: Performing the analysis, Visualization, Interpretation of data, Writing – review & editing; Felix C.F.

；Maximilian Dietrich：进行分析，可视化，数据解释，写作-评论和编辑；费利克斯C.F。

Schmitt: Interpretation of data, Writing – review & editing; Erik Popp: Interpretation of data, Writing – review & editing; Markus Ries: Conceiving and designing the analysis, Writing – original draft, Interpretation of data, Visualization, Resources, Supervision.Corresponding authorCorrespondence to.

施密特：数据解释，写作-评论和编辑；埃里克·波普：数据解释，写作-评论和编辑；Markus Ries：构思和设计分析，撰写原始草案，解释数据，可视化，资源，监督。对应作者对应。

Maik von der Forst.Ethics declarations

森林之舞。伦理声明

Competing interest

竞争利益

Markus Ries: Is a guest Editor of the collection „Disaster and emergency preparedness “ of Scientific Reports. The remaining authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

马库斯·里斯（Markus Ries）：是科学报告集“灾难和应急准备”的客座编辑。其余作者没有利益冲突要申报。

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Reprints and permissionsAbout this articleCite this articlevon der Forst, M., Dietrich, M., Schmitt, F.C.F. et al. Perennial disaster patterns in Central Europe since 2000 and implications for hospital preparedness planning – a cross-sectional analysis.

转载和许可本文引用本文von der Forst，M.，Dietrich，M.，Schmitt，F.C.F.等人2000年以来中欧的常年灾害模式以及对医院准备计划的影响-横断面分析。

Sci Rep 15, 620 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84223-4Download citationReceived: 22 March 2024Accepted: 20 December 2024Published: 03 January 2025DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84223-4Share this articleAnyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:Get shareable linkSorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.Copy to clipboard.

Sci Rep 15620（2025）。https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84223-4Download引文接收日期：2024年3月22日接受日期：2024年12月20日发布日期：2025年1月3日DOI：https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-84223-4Share本文与您共享以下链接的任何人都可以阅读此内容：获取可共享链接对不起，本文目前没有可共享的链接。复制到剪贴板。

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KeywordsDisasterMass casualty incidentNatural hazardHospital disaster planningCritical infrastructureTechnological hazard

关键词灾难大规模伤亡事件自然危害医院灾难规划关键基础设施技术危害