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This study assesses the global burden of thyroid cancer (TC) among adolescents and young adults (AYA) aged 15-39 from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we analysed the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 204 countries.

本研究评估了1990年至2021年间15-39岁的青少年和年轻成人（AYA）的全球甲状腺癌（TC）负担，并预测至2050年。利用《全球疾病负担（GBD）2021》数据库的数据，我们分析了204个国家的发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。

Thyroid cancer incidence has risen significantly, with new cases increasing from 19,268 in 1990 to 48,203 in 2021. Females continue to experience a higher disease burden than males, with an incidence rate of 2.38 per 100,000 in 2021, compared to 0.88 in males. Regional disparities also exist, with the highest burden observed in the Middle East and North Africa, where incidence rates reached 2.49 per 100,000 in 2021.The ARIMA models project that by 2050, the global prevalence of TC will reach 103.62 per million, with an incidence rate of 11.41 per 100,000.

甲状腺癌发病率显著上升，新发病例从1990年的19,268例增加到2021年的48,203例。女性的疾病负担仍然高于男性，2021年女性发病率为每10万人中2.38例，而男性为0.88例。地区差异同样存在，中东和北非的疾病负担最高，2021年发病率达到了每10万人中2.49例。ARIMA模型预测，到2050年，全球甲状腺癌的患病率将达到每百万人中103.62例，发病率为每10万人中11.41例。

Mortality is expected to rise slightly, while the DALYs burden is projected to increase to 34.41 per million. Females, particularly in lower-SDI regions, are predicted to bear a disproportionate share of the disease burden. While high-SDI regions are forecasted to experience a decline in incidence and prevalence, lower-SDI regions will face increasing challenges due to limited healthcare infrastructure and delayed diagnoses.This study underscores the growing public health burden of thyroid cancer, particularly among AYA populations.

预计死亡率将略有上升，而DALYs负担预计将增加至每百万34.41。女性，尤其是在较低SDI地区，预计将承受不成比例的疾病负担。尽管高SDI地区预计发病率和患病率将下降，但较低SDI地区由于医疗基础设施有限和诊断延迟，将面临越来越多的挑战。本研究强调了甲状腺癌日益增长的公共卫生负担，特别是在青少年和年轻成人（AYA）群体中。

Effective strategies for early diagnosis, improved treatment, and equitable resource distribution are critical to addressing the rising incidence, especially in vulnerable regions..

有效的早期诊断、改进治疗和公平资源分配策略对于应对不断上升的发病率至关重要，尤其是在脆弱地区。