“你必须非常熟练才能拥有一份工作”：人工智能之父杰弗里·辛顿预测医疗保健将在人工智能颠覆中幸存下来-动脉网

'You'd Have to Be Very Skilled to Have A Job': AI Godfather Geoffrey Hinton Predicts Healthcare Will Survive AI Disruption

benzinga 等信源发布 2025-07-23 12:57

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'You'd have to be very skilled to have a job,' said AI godfather

“你必须非常熟练才能有一份工作，”人工智能之父说。

Geoffrey Hinton

杰弗里·辛顿

, warning that automation could erase much of today's intellectual labor. As generative AI floods workplaces, Hinton's comments highlight growing uncertainty about the future of work.

，警告称自动化可能会抹去当今大部分的知识劳动。随着生成式人工智能涌入工作场所，辛顿的评论凸显了对未来工作的日益增长的不确定性。

Speaking on '

讲话开始于'

The Diary of a CEO

CEO日记

' podcast, Hinton argued that automation will swallow 'mundane intellectual labor' yet

播客中，欣顿认为自动化将吞噬“平凡的脑力劳动”，然而

spare medicine

备用药品

, where demand seems bottomless. The bold claim invites a pressing question: Can health care outrun algorithms while other sectors shrink?

，那里的需求似乎无穷无尽。这一大胆的主张引发了一个紧迫的问题：在其他行业萎缩的同时，医疗保健能否跑赢算法？

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开始使用

Experts Diverge On AI Job Loss

专家对人工智能导致的失业问题存在分歧

Hinton's forecast follows a grim pattern. Anthropic CEO

辛顿的预测遵循了一个严峻的模式。Anthropic首席执行官

Dario Amodei

达里奥·阿莫代伊

told

告诉

Axios in May that AI could erase 'roughly half' of entry‑level white‑collar roles within one to five years, warning unemployment could spike to 10% to 20%.

Axios 五月份表示，人工智能可能在一二十年内消除“大约一半”的初级白领工作，并警告失业率可能飙升至10%到20%。

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成为可能取代我们所知塑料的突破性进展的一部分——

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在7月31日截止日期前投资Timeplast，帮助彻底改变一个价值1.3万亿美元的行业。

$100k+ in investable assets?

可投资资产超过10万美元？

Match with a fiduciary advisor for free to learn how you can maximize your retirement and save on taxes

免费匹配一位信托顾问，了解如何最大化您的退休金并节省税款。

– no cost, no obligation.

– 无费用，无义务。

Jensen Huang

黄仁勋

, CEO of Nvidia

英伟达首席执行官

NVDA

英伟达

, pushed back. Huang

，被推了回去。黄

told

告诉

Axios last week that AI will 'create vastly more and superior jobs,' comparing the shift to past industrial leaps.

Axios上周表示，人工智能将“创造更多且更优越的工作岗位”，并将这一转变与过去的工业飞跃相比较。

Even inside boardrooms, consensus proves elusive. Salesforce

即使在董事会内部，也难以达成共识。 Salesforce

CRM

客户关系管理

CEO

首席执行官

Marc Benioff

马克·贝尼奥夫

，

told

告诉

Business Insider

商业内幕

at the AI for Good Global Summit in Geneva in July that customers are 'not saying, ‘I'm laying off employees because of AI advancements.' He cast the technology as a productivity booster, not a job killer

在于7月日内瓦举行的“AI向善全球峰会”上表示，客户并没有说“因为人工智能的进步我要解雇员工”。他将这项技术视为生产力的助推器，而不是工作杀手。

Goldman Sachs

高盛集团

通用标准

research

研究

from 2023 forecasts that generative AI could eventually automate up to 50% of tasks and boost global output by nearly $7 trillion.

从 2023 年的预测来看，生成式人工智能最终可能实现多达 50% 的任务自动化，并将全球产出提高近 7 万亿美元。

Health Care Emerges As Automation Outlier

医疗保健成为自动化领域的例外

Hinton told

欣顿告诉

Steven Bartlett,

史蒂文·巴特利特，

host of “The Diary of a CEO” podcast, that clinical work is 'much more elastic' because patients always want more treatment when costs falls. He estimated that making doctors five times more efficient would yield five times more care, not layoffs.

“首席执行官日记”播客的主持人认为，临床工作“弹性大得多”，因为当成本下降时，患者总是想要更多的治疗。他估计，让医生的效率提高五倍会带来五倍的医疗服务，而不是裁员。

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趋势：这个由人工智能驱动的交易平台拥有5000多名用户、27项待批专利，估值达4397万美元——

You Can Become an Investor for Just $500.25

仅用500.25美元，你就能成为一名投资者。

Data align with this view. A 2024

数据与此观点一致。2024年

McKinsey report

麦肯锡报告

predicted automation could replace up to 30% of U.S. jobs by 2030 and projected net hiring growth in health care, clean energy, and STEM fields. The consultancy pointed to tasks that remain difficult to automate, such as sterilizing surgical tools and assisting with in-home care.

预测自动化可能会在2030年前取代高达30%的美国工作岗位，并预计医疗保健、清洁能源和STEM领域的净招聘将增长。该咨询公司指出，仍然难以自动化的任务包括消毒手术工具和协助家庭护理。

'I think there’s something about the human empathy aspect of that and the care and so on, that’s particularly humanistic,' Google DeepMind CEO

“我认为其中涉及的人类同理心、关怀等方面，具有特别人性化的特点，”谷歌DeepMind首席执行官表示。

Demis Hassabis

德米斯·哈萨比斯

told

告诉

Wired in an interview when asked whether hospitals will adopt robot nurses.

接线员在接受采访时被问及医院是否会采用机器人护士。

Investors appear convinced. Health‑tech startups attracted $6.4 billion in the first half of the year, up7% from 2024, according to

投资者似乎深信不疑。根据数据显示，健康科技初创公司在今年上半年吸引了 64 亿美元，比 2024 年增长了 7%。

Rock Health

。

See Also:

另请参阅：

Are you rich?

你有钱吗？

Here’s what Americans think you need to be considered wealthy.

以下是美国人认为你需要达到的标准才能被视为富有。

Early Data Underscore Medical Demand

早期数据凸显医疗需求

Recent labor figures reinforce the trend.

最近的劳动力数据加强了这一趋势。

Bureau of Labor Statistics

劳动统计局

data show health‑care payrolls grew by 39,000 in June, extending a 16‑month hiring streak even as overall job creation slowed.

数据显示，医疗保健行业的就业岗位在6月份增加了39,000个，延续了长达16个月的招聘增长趋势，尽管整体就业增长有所放缓。

Usage patterns reveal a disconnect between employees and leadership. According to the

使用模式揭示了员工与领导层之间的脱节。根据

report

报告

'Superagency in the Workplace: Empowering People to Unlock AI's Full Potential,' released in January by McKinsey, 12% of employees use generative AI for at least 30% of their daily work—more than triple what executives estimate. The report urges organizations to scale training and adoption efforts to fully unlock AI's potential in the workplace..

麦肯锡1月发布的《职场超级代理：赋权员工以充分释放AI潜力》报告显示，12%的员工在日常工作中至少30%的任务使用生成式人工智能，这一比例是高管估计的三倍多。该报告敦促各组织加大培训和推广力度，以充分释放AI在职场中的潜力。

Read Next: Can you guess how many retire with a $5,000,000 nest egg?

接下来阅读：你能猜到有多少人退休时拥有500万美元的存款吗？

The percentage may shock you

这个百分比可能会让你震惊

。

Image: Shutterstock

图片：Shutterstock

通用标准

The Goldman Sachs Group Inc

高盛集团有限公司

$709.19